Whether it is an election, a professional sports team, or even companies on how well they do... I estimate, and sometimes I do get it right. For instance, this past election in Quebec, Canada. I knew that the liberal leader was in trouble, over raising tuition fees for students. Not only that, but the attacks on his government for possible corruption. These two issues, I thought, was going to lead him into minority government. He is a popular leader, but he finished at the other end of the minority government. The PQ government one by 4 seats. A minority government. The baseball situation. I figured my team, the Blue Jays would have been wild card contenders this year. I fell off the wagon, but with the injuries they had, there was no way of predicting the bad finish they took on this year. Oh well.
Then I looked at my own contest. I estimated a top finish of 600 contestants entered for my contest. It happened I was wrong, and that I was very lucky to get approx. 680. I estimated an amount of between 500 to 600, which was a modest amount. I knew it could go way beyond this, but that was the number I stuck with. I was off, but in a good way. Sometimes I forecast, or predict, lower expectations than what comes in my way. Maybe this helps to make me feel a little better at times...
I do think estimation is a great tool, and makes life interesting when expectations go one way or another. We all hope things go, towards the great and not the lesser.
Have a great evening, till next time..