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Black Swan effect or Dark horse.

I thought I heard about the Black Swan effect awhile back.  It was on the PBS channel, and a political conversation was taking place. "If no Black Swan comes around, then the incumbent should win the next election".  The incumbent must have had a huge lead in the polls. It is probably a rare, and improbable event, that causes a massive reversal in outcome. It does sometimes happen. This is in sports, politics, finances, and probably in any event that takes place.

Black Swan effect. A sudden, unexpected twist or turn in events, that has a major impact on the direction of  events where they should have unfolded.

Could a candidates speech, be a factor as a black swan effect?  I remember a politician "yeah, yeah" screaming after a campaign speech, where it led him to finish off of the podium for becoming a contender. The primary race was his to win. It was played back in the news, quite a bit, back then. 9 11 is often referred to as a black swan event, as the politicians of the time were talking in the news about their high level of surprise. The housing crisis and stock market crash of 2008 was probably a black swan event for many, as well. In finance, it could be a company being bought out by another, creating stock increases. On the other hand, it may mean a mainstream company posting a heavy quarterly loss report.

The Butterfly effect, is where a small indifference creates huge problems down the line. A film back in 2004, with the same title, was a hit back then.

In reference to people in competition, I like to use the Dark Horse saying. When any little known sports athlete defeats an incredible sports athlete, I always think of the Dark Horse saying. Same as in politics. It is sometimes fun, to see the Dark Horse effect come in to play. Sometimes it is not. In the PBS special, they used the Black Swan to probably describe an unseen event happening to turn the tides. In politics, I think I will still always think of the Dark Horse analogy, but now I will sometimes think of the Black Swan effect in the back of my head. If or any did it play any roll in the reversal of tides...

Till next time...


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